{"id":4822,"date":"2024-04-13T12:33:23","date_gmt":"2024-04-13T12:33:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/?p=4822"},"modified":"2025-04-13T12:44:50","modified_gmt":"2025-04-13T12:44:50","slug":"round-4-performance-breakdown-round-5-trader-behavior-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/2024\/04\/13\/round-4-performance-breakdown-round-5-trader-behavior-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Round 4 Performance Breakdown &#038; Round 5 Trader Behavior Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"4822\" class=\"elementor elementor-4822\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-9cf087b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"9cf087b\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-03961ff\" data-id=\"03961ff\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0518273 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0518273\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.6.7 - 03-07-2022 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#818a91;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#818a91;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p><b>Round 4 Results<\/b><\/p><p>\u2981 Orchids: Still no arbitrage opportunities emerged<\/p><p>\u2981 Coconuts &amp; coupons: Generated 80k+ profit<\/p><p>\u2981 Basket trading: Achieved 60k+ profit<\/p><p>\u2981 Total PnL: Approximately 194k<\/p><p>\u2981 Manual trading: Selected conservative bids of 956\/984, resulting in 101k profit<\/p><p>\u2981 Overall ranking: Dropped slightly to 42nd place<\/p><p>\u2981 Note: Top performer now has more than double my PnL. They likely discovered superior coconut trading opportunities that I haven&#8217;t been able to identify despite extensive research.<\/p><p><b>Round 5 Trader Identification Insights<\/b><\/p><p>Key market participants identified:<\/p><p>1. Primary Market Makers:<\/p><p>\u2981 Valentina and Vinnie establish prices for most products<\/p><p>\u2981 Market demonstrates strong resilience &#8211; even large orders at specific timestamps see prices revert by the next timestamp<\/p><p>2. Retail Traders:<\/p><p>\u2981 Ruby and Remy exhibit typical retail behavior:<\/p><p>\u00a0 \u00a0\u2981 Random trading directions<\/p><p>\u00a0 \u00a0\u2981 Consistently cross the book<\/p><p>3. Trading Behavior Analysis (See following figure for coconut\/coupon breakdown):<\/p><p>\u2981 Aggressive trades (buying above mid, selling below mid):<\/p><p>\u00a0 \u00a0\u2981 Dominant among R-family traders (retail segment)<\/p><p>\u2981 Passive trades (buying below mid, selling above mid):<\/p><p>\u00a0 \u00a0\u2981 Characteristic of V-family (market makers)<\/p><p>\u2981 Vinnie shows unique pattern with some aggressive selling, possibly indicating slightly lower fair value estimates than Valentina<\/p><p>4. Actionable Opportunity:<\/p><p>\u2981 Raj exclusively trades coconuts<\/p><p>\u2981 His trading direction shows strong correlation with coconut movements over next 40 steps<\/p><p>\u2981 Implementation: Adjust coconut fair value based on Raj&#8217;s trades<\/p><p>\u2981 Backtest results: ~10k additional profit<\/p><p><b>Interesting But Unexploited Observations<\/b><\/p><p>1. Rhianna&#8217;s Trading Patterns:<\/p><p>\u2981 Coconut trades align almost perfectly with Vinnie&#8217;s (100% PNL correlation)<\/p><p>\u2981 Matches &#8220;girlfriend&#8221; character backstory but unclear practical utility<\/p><p>2. Gift Basket Behavior:<\/p><p>\u2981 Rhianna&#8217;s trades predict next-timestamp price movements<\/p><p>\u2981 Challenge: Basket bid-ask spreads too wide for practical exploitation<\/p><p>\u2981 Current status: Potential value not yet actionable<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-d407eca elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"d407eca\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-959ce61\" data-id=\"959ce61\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ad1debd elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"ad1debd\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.6.7 - 03-07-2022 *\/\n.elementor-widget-image{text-align:center}.elementor-widget-image a{display:inline-block}.elementor-widget-image a img[src$=\".svg\"]{width:48px}.elementor-widget-image img{vertical-align:middle;display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"574\" height=\"290\" src=\"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/26-2.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/26-2.jpg 574w, https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/26-2-300x152.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 574px) 100vw, 574px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Round 4 Results \u2981 Orchids: Still no arbitrage opportunities emerged \u2981 Coconuts &amp; coupons: Generated 80k+ profit \u2981 Basket trading: Achieved 60k+ profit \u2981 Total PnL: Approximately 194k \u2981 Manual trading: Selected conservative bids of 956\/984, resulting in 101k profit \u2981 Overall ranking: Dropped slightly to 42nd place \u2981 Note: Top performer now has more [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2024r5"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4822","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4822"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4822\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4836,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4822\/revisions\/4836"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4537"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4822"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}