{"id":4758,"date":"2024-04-13T11:37:49","date_gmt":"2024-04-13T11:37:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/?p=4758"},"modified":"2025-04-13T12:45:08","modified_gmt":"2025-04-13T12:45:08","slug":"round-3-optimizations-volume-stabilized-orchids-basket-trading-tactics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/2024\/04\/13\/round-3-optimizations-volume-stabilized-orchids-basket-trading-tactics\/","title":{"rendered":"Round 3 Optimizations: Volume-Stabilized Orchids &#038; Basket Trading Tactics"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"4758\" class=\"elementor elementor-4758\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7c9f3ee elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7c9f3ee\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-a6724e5\" data-id=\"a6724e5\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6114717 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6114717\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.6.7 - 03-07-2022 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#818a91;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#818a91;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p><b>Orchids Strategy Update<\/b><br>After analyzing Round 2 results where I earned 460k in Orchids versus the leader&#8217;s estimated 660k, I implemented a key improvement:<\/p>\n<p>1. Volume Stabilization System<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 My average trading volume was 35% per step<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Projected leader&#8217;s volume \u2248 50% (calculated: 35%\/460\u00d7660)<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 New dynamic adjustment:<br>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 Increases edge when 200-step average volume &gt; 60%<br>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 Decreases edge when volume &lt; 40%<br>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 Targets 50% fill rate to match top performers<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Testing showed improvement from 6k to 11k PnL (note: limited test data only covered final high-yield period)<\/p>\n<p><b>Basket Trading Approach<\/b><br>For the basket trading portion, I reused and refined last year&#8217;s strategy:<\/p>\n<p>1. Pricing Model<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Fair value = 4\u00d7Chocolate + 6\u00d7Strawberry + 1\u00d7Rose + 380 premium<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 The 380 premium and 30-edge threshold were optimized using 3 days of historical data<\/p>\n<p>2. Execution Logic<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Passively take basket positions<br>\u2981 Aggressively hedge components when edge exceeds \u00b130<br>\u2981 Current estimates:<br>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 16k in Round 3 test data<br>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 ~100k\/day in historical simulation<\/p>\n<p><b>Manual Challenge Strategy<\/b><br>For the manual selection game:<\/p>\n<p>1. Game Theory Analysis<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Narrowed down to 6 optimal cells: G30, I28, J26, J29, J30, K28<br>\u2981 Using two-level iterative reasoning:<br>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 First pass assumes uniform distribution<br>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 Second pass weights by projected profitability<\/p>\n<p>2. Community Advantage<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Encouraging knowledge sharing among Chinese competitors<br>\u2981 Creates data advantage versus international players<\/p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts<\/b><br>While the Orchids adjustments show promise in testing, the real proof will come in live competition. The basket trading strategy could benefit from exploring market making opportunities if time permits. For the manual challenge, collaborative analysis gives us an edge &#8211; let&#8217;s keep sharing insights!<\/p>\n<p>Happy trading to all competitors!<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Orchids Strategy UpdateAfter analyzing Round 2 results where I earned 460k in Orchids versus the leader&#8217;s estimated 660k, I implemented a key improvement: 1. Volume Stabilization System \u2981 My average trading volume was 35% per step \u2981 Projected leader&#8217;s volume \u2248 50% (calculated: 35%\/460\u00d7660) \u2981 New dynamic adjustment:&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 Increases edge when 200-step average volume [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2024r3"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4758","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4758"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4758\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4771,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4758\/revisions\/4771"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4537"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4758"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4758"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4758"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}