{"id":4750,"date":"2024-04-13T11:30:52","date_gmt":"2024-04-13T11:30:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/?p=4750"},"modified":"2025-04-13T12:45:16","modified_gmt":"2025-04-13T12:45:16","slug":"game-theory-in-action-solving-round-3s-multiplier-puzzle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/2024\/04\/13\/game-theory-in-action-solving-round-3s-multiplier-puzzle\/","title":{"rendered":"Game Theory in Action: Solving Round 3&#8217;s Multiplier Puzzle"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"4750\" class=\"elementor elementor-4750\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-dcdc46c elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"dcdc46c\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-f88e9ce\" data-id=\"f88e9ce\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-02b0704 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"02b0704\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.6.7 - 03-07-2022 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#818a91;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#818a91;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p><b>Key Results:<\/b><br>\u2981 Final Rank: #51 (dropped further)<br>\u2981 Gap Analysis:<br>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 Behind #1 by 200k<br>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 #1 leads #2 by 100k \u2192 suggests unique edge found by leader<\/p>\n<p><b>Round 3 Game Plan:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>1\ufe0f\u20e3 Orchids Focus (200k potential upside)<br>\u2981 Continue refining arbitrage\/weather strategies<br>\u2981 Highest ROI opportunity despite complexity<\/p>\n<p>2\ufe0f\u20e3 Basket Trading<br>\u2981 Reuse last year&#8217;s code (reference previous posts)<br>\u2981 Expected PnL &lt;80k (secondary priority)<\/p>\n<p><b>Round 3 Manual Challenge Breakdown:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Mechanics:<br>(1) 25 cells, each with multiplier &amp; current occupants<br>(2) Choose \u22643 cells (1st free, 2nd 25k, 3rd 75k cost)<br>(3) PnL = 7.5k \u00d7 multiplier \/ (occupants + selection_ratio)<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Game Theory Approach:<br>(1) First iteration: Assume uniform distribution (4% per cell)<br>(2) Second iteration: Weight distribution by 1st-iteration PnLs<br>(3) Select top-2 PnL cells after convergence<br>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 Nash equilibrium unreachable in first attempt<br>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 Key is estimating average player depth + thinking one layer deeper<\/p>\n<p><b>Risk Management:<\/b><br>\u2981 Avoiding 3rd cell (poor risk\/reward at 75k cost)<\/p>\n<p><b>Strategic Insight:<\/b><br>&#8220;While basket trading offers predictable returns, the Orchids puzzle \u2013 with its 200k leader gap \u2013 remains the true tournament differentiator.&#8221;<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Results:\u2981 Final Rank: #51 (dropped further)\u2981 Gap Analysis:&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 Behind #1 by 200k&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 #1 leads #2 by 100k \u2192 suggests unique edge found by leader Round 3 Game Plan: 1\ufe0f\u20e3 Orchids Focus (200k potential upside)\u2981 Continue refining arbitrage\/weather strategies\u2981 Highest ROI opportunity despite complexity 2\ufe0f\u20e3 Basket Trading\u2981 Reuse last year&#8217;s code (reference previous [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2024r3"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4750","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4750"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4750\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4757,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4750\/revisions\/4757"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4537"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}