{"id":4717,"date":"2024-04-13T10:54:35","date_gmt":"2024-04-13T10:54:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/?p=4717"},"modified":"2025-04-13T12:45:31","modified_gmt":"2025-04-13T12:45:31","slug":"two-island-arbitrage-weather-algos-round-2-deep-dive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/2024\/04\/13\/two-island-arbitrage-weather-algos-round-2-deep-dive\/","title":{"rendered":"Two-Island Arbitrage &#038; Weather Algos: Round 2 Deep Dive"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"4717\" class=\"elementor elementor-4717\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-a226ffe elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"a226ffe\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7116945\" data-id=\"7116945\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ed14167 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ed14167\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.6.7 - 03-07-2022 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#818a91;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#818a91;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p>The Round 1 results are out &#8211; overall rank #27, which is pretty good!<\/p>\n<p><b>Manual portion: <\/b>Ranked 700+ (quite low), but the score difference with #1 is less than 1 point. Not sure how the scoring works exactly\u2014might be random variation or decimal inputs allowed in previous rounds\u2014but anyway, the difference is negligible.<\/p>\n<p><b>Round 2 Manual: <\/b>Same as last year, so I won&#8217;t go into details (refer to previous posts). My result was:<br>shell \u2192 pizza \u2192 wasabi \u2192 shell \u2192 pizza \u2192 shell<br>Profit: 1.0569693888<\/p>\n<p><b>Round 2 Algo (New This Year):<\/b> Trading orchids, with two key opportunities:<\/p>\n<p>1\ufe0f\u20e3 Arbitrage Between Islands:<\/p>\n<p><b>Two orderbooks:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Local (main island): Standard bid\/ask prices<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Southern Island: Provides bid\/ask but with additional costs:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 Real bid price = Southern bid \u2212 export tariffs \u2212 transport fees<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 Real ask price = Southern ask + import tariffs + transport fees<\/p>\n<p><b>Example:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Local: bid=1008, ask=1016<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Southern (adjusted): real bid=1018, real ask=1022<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Arbitrage: Buy locally at 1016 \u2192 convert \u2192 sell in South at 1018 \u2192 +2 profit<\/p>\n<p>Implemented Arb Bot v1: Current profit ~2k.<\/p>\n<p>2\ufe0f\u20e3 Weather-Based Position Taking:<br>Orchid prices are influenced by:<\/p>\n<p><b>Sunlight:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Observation gives instantaneous sunlight rate (per hour)<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Baseline average = 2500<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 If daily sunlight &lt;7h: Every 10min shortfall \u2192 4% yield drop<\/p>\n<p><b>Humidity:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Ideal range: 60-80<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Outside range: Every 5-point deviation \u2192 2% yield drop<\/p>\n<p><b>Preliminary Ideas:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Humidity:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 Below 60: Buy if humidity \u2193 (negative correlation, scarcity drives prices up)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;\u2981 Above 80: Buy if humidity \u2191 (positive correlation, excess dryness harms yield)<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Sunlight: Still brainstorming (to be tested).<\/p>\n<p><b>Key Takeaways:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Arbitrage is live and profitable (bot v1 working).<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Weather-dependent strategies need backtesting\u2014recorded here for future refinement.<\/p>\n<p>Happy trading!<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Round 1 results are out &#8211; overall rank #27, which is pretty good! Manual portion: Ranked 700+ (quite low), but the score difference with #1 is less than 1 point. Not sure how the scoring works exactly\u2014might be random variation or decimal inputs allowed in previous rounds\u2014but anyway, the difference is negligible. Round 2 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2024r2"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4717"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4717\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4727,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4717\/revisions\/4727"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4537"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}