{"id":4597,"date":"2023-04-13T08:59:48","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T08:59:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/?p=4597"},"modified":"2025-04-13T10:45:18","modified_gmt":"2025-04-13T10:45:18","slug":"round-1-insights-decoding-bot-patterns-and-cracking-forex-arbitrage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/2023\/04\/13\/round-1-insights-decoding-bot-patterns-and-cracking-forex-arbitrage\/","title":{"rendered":"Round 1 Insights: Decoding Bot Patterns and Cracking Forex Arbitrage"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"4597\" class=\"elementor elementor-4597\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-61cf1bb elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"61cf1bb\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-5a81465\" data-id=\"5a81465\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f7505b9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f7505b9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.6.7 - 03-07-2022 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#818a91;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#818a91;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p>Round 1 has begun. The algo trading portion is nearly identical to the tutorial round, just using different day&#8217;s data. One inconvenient change is that Round 1 only provides log information without PnL reporting, so I have to calculate my profits manually from the logs &#8211; quite troublesome.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, I didn&#8217;t make any major modifications, just did some parameter tweaking based on my log-estimated PnL. The only interesting observation was that the organizers provided three days of trading data along with their bots&#8217; PnL. I noticed that across all three days:<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 The bots consistently made\/lost just a few hundred dollars on pearls<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 But earned 10,000-20,000 on bananas<\/p>\n<p>This suggests:<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 The pearls bots might be trading randomly without additional information<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 The bananas bots appear to have some price prediction capability<\/p>\n<p>If this hypothesis holds, I should consider how to leverage this information in my trading strategy &#8211; though I haven&#8217;t figured out how yet.<\/p>\n<p>On another front, the manual trades presented an interesting forex arbitrage problem:<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 5 total transactions involving 6 currencies<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Both start and end with &#8220;shell&#8221; currency<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Only the middle 4 currencies can be exchanged<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Each currency has just 4 possible exchange options<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 Total possibilities: 4^4 = 256 combinations<\/p>\n<p>\u2981 The optimal sequence was 412314, yielding 1.0436 profit<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Round 1 has begun. The algo trading portion is nearly identical to the tutorial round, just using different day&#8217;s data. One inconvenient change is that Round 1 only provides log information without PnL reporting, so I have to calculate my profits manually from the logs &#8211; quite troublesome. As a result, I didn&#8217;t make any [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2023r1"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4597","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4597"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4597\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4629,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4597\/revisions\/4629"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4537"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4597"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4597"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prosperity.newai.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4597"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}