The Round 1 results are out – overall rank #27, which is pretty good!
Manual portion: Ranked 700+ (quite low), but the score difference with #1 is less than 1 point. Not sure how the scoring works exactly—might be random variation or decimal inputs allowed in previous rounds—but anyway, the difference is negligible.
Round 2 Manual: Same as last year, so I won’t go into details (refer to previous posts). My result was:
shell → pizza → wasabi → shell → pizza → shell
Profit: 1.0569693888
Round 2 Algo (New This Year): Trading orchids, with two key opportunities:
1️⃣ Arbitrage Between Islands:
Two orderbooks:
⦁ Local (main island): Standard bid/ask prices
⦁ Southern Island: Provides bid/ask but with additional costs:
⦁ Real bid price = Southern bid − export tariffs − transport fees
⦁ Real ask price = Southern ask + import tariffs + transport fees
Example:
⦁ Local: bid=1008, ask=1016
⦁ Southern (adjusted): real bid=1018, real ask=1022
⦁ Arbitrage: Buy locally at 1016 → convert → sell in South at 1018 → +2 profit
Implemented Arb Bot v1: Current profit ~2k.
2️⃣ Weather-Based Position Taking:
Orchid prices are influenced by:
Sunlight:
⦁ Observation gives instantaneous sunlight rate (per hour)
⦁ Baseline average = 2500
⦁ If daily sunlight <7h: Every 10min shortfall → 4% yield drop
Humidity:
⦁ Ideal range: 60-80
⦁ Outside range: Every 5-point deviation → 2% yield drop
Preliminary Ideas:
⦁ Humidity:
⦁ Below 60: Buy if humidity ↓ (negative correlation, scarcity drives prices up)
⦁ Above 80: Buy if humidity ↑ (positive correlation, excess dryness harms yield)
⦁ Sunlight: Still brainstorming (to be tested).
Key Takeaways:
⦁ Arbitrage is live and profitable (bot v1 working).
⦁ Weather-dependent strategies need backtesting—recorded here for future refinement.
Happy trading!
