Orchids Strategy
No changes planned. While the humidity-based strategy (trading when outside 60-80 range) shows some unstable positive returns, it’s an order of magnitude less profitable than arbitrage. I’m going all-in on arb and avoiding position-taking.
Reasoning:
(1) If arb opportunities are scarce this round, nobody will make much profit anyway.
(2) If arb is plentiful, missing out would be far more costly.
Coconut Coupons
After testing various approaches:
⦁ Tried rolling/exponential moving averages for implied volatility
⦁ Found that a constant implied vol (derived from the bird-given combo: 637.63 coupon price at 10,000 coconut) works best on the 3-day dataset
⦁ Decision: Stick with constant implied vol, despite poor web backtest performance
⦁ The backtest data is biased anyway – overfitting to it would likely hurt live results
Manual Trading
⦁ Bid Strategy: Submitting 956 (low) / 984 (high)
⦁ Expected Outcome: PnL differences should be within 10k among competitors
Best of luck to everyone with tonight’s results!
