Key Results:
⦁ Final Rank: #51 (dropped further)
⦁ Gap Analysis:
⦁ Behind #1 by 200k
⦁ #1 leads #2 by 100k → suggests unique edge found by leader
Round 3 Game Plan:
1️⃣ Orchids Focus (200k potential upside)
⦁ Continue refining arbitrage/weather strategies
⦁ Highest ROI opportunity despite complexity
2️⃣ Basket Trading
⦁ Reuse last year’s code (reference previous posts)
⦁ Expected PnL <80k (secondary priority)
Round 3 Manual Challenge Breakdown:
⦁ Mechanics:
(1) 25 cells, each with multiplier & current occupants
(2) Choose ≤3 cells (1st free, 2nd 25k, 3rd 75k cost)
(3) PnL = 7.5k × multiplier / (occupants + selection_ratio)
⦁ Game Theory Approach:
(1) First iteration: Assume uniform distribution (4% per cell)
(2) Second iteration: Weight distribution by 1st-iteration PnLs
(3) Select top-2 PnL cells after convergence
⦁ Nash equilibrium unreachable in first attempt
⦁ Key is estimating average player depth + thinking one layer deeper
Risk Management:
⦁ Avoiding 3rd cell (poor risk/reward at 75k cost)
Strategic Insight:
“While basket trading offers predictable returns, the Orchids puzzle – with its 200k leader gap – remains the true tournament differentiator.”
