Round 4 Results
⦁ Orchids: Still no arbitrage opportunities emerged
⦁ Coconuts & coupons: Generated 80k+ profit
⦁ Basket trading: Achieved 60k+ profit
⦁ Total PnL: Approximately 194k
⦁ Manual trading: Selected conservative bids of 956/984, resulting in 101k profit
⦁ Overall ranking: Dropped slightly to 42nd place
⦁ Note: Top performer now has more than double my PnL. They likely discovered superior coconut trading opportunities that I haven’t been able to identify despite extensive research.
Round 5 Trader Identification Insights
Key market participants identified:
1. Primary Market Makers:
⦁ Valentina and Vinnie establish prices for most products
⦁ Market demonstrates strong resilience – even large orders at specific timestamps see prices revert by the next timestamp
2. Retail Traders:
⦁ Ruby and Remy exhibit typical retail behavior:
⦁ Random trading directions
⦁ Consistently cross the book
3. Trading Behavior Analysis (See following figure for coconut/coupon breakdown):
⦁ Aggressive trades (buying above mid, selling below mid):
⦁ Dominant among R-family traders (retail segment)
⦁ Passive trades (buying below mid, selling above mid):
⦁ Characteristic of V-family (market makers)
⦁ Vinnie shows unique pattern with some aggressive selling, possibly indicating slightly lower fair value estimates than Valentina
4. Actionable Opportunity:
⦁ Raj exclusively trades coconuts
⦁ His trading direction shows strong correlation with coconut movements over next 40 steps
⦁ Implementation: Adjust coconut fair value based on Raj’s trades
⦁ Backtest results: ~10k additional profit
Interesting But Unexploited Observations
1. Rhianna’s Trading Patterns:
⦁ Coconut trades align almost perfectly with Vinnie’s (100% PNL correlation)
⦁ Matches “girlfriend” character backstory but unclear practical utility
2. Gift Basket Behavior:
⦁ Rhianna’s trades predict next-timestamp price movements
⦁ Challenge: Basket bid-ask spreads too wide for practical exploitation
⦁ Current status: Potential value not yet actionable
